WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (JONGDARI) 
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 34.3N 125.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 108 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, S.
KOREA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
SYSTEM IN THE YELLOW SEA UNDERGOING DECAY WITH SHALLOWING, 
FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT FLARING CONVECTION, IN AND AROUND THE CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EVIDENT ON A COMPOSITE 
WEATHER RADAR LOOP THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE LLC 
FEATURE IN THE 201003Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
30KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT 
OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL POSITION AND 
INTENSITY ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY TRIANGULATION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF 
NUMEROUS NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS IN THE YELLOW SEA. ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST GREATLY OFFSET
BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 201140Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 26 KTS AT 201100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR,
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE DMZ SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS
NORTH KOREA, THEN EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN BEFORE TAU 24. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO 25KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, THE ADDITION OF FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS FROM THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24,
LIKELY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN
EVEN SPREAD TO 70NM BY TAU 24, NOT COUNTING AFUM, THE SOLE EXTREME
LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF LAND INTERACTION AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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