WDPN33 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 36.5N 143.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 216 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DISINTEGRATING CONVECTIVE BANDING
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. AS COOL DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO BATTER THE SYSTEM, CENTRAL CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AS THE SYSTEM INCREASES ITS POLEWARD
TRANSLATION. A 162141Z SUITE OF SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THE SYSTEM IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT AND DEVOID OF MUCH OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IT POSSESSED NOT 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
90-102KTS WHILE CIMSS DPRINT AND ADT INDICATE BELOW 85KTS, WHICH IS
TOO BOLD.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHARY OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 0000Z
   CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 0020Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 08W (AMPIL) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHICH WILL GUIDE THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD AND EASTWARD, ITS ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE ENTIRE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF 08W HAS BEGUN TO ERODE UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW. NEAR TAU 24, 08W WILL TRACK POLEWARD OF THE 26C ISOTHERM
WHICH WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE THE WEAKENING TREND. NEAR TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM INCREASES ITS INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAXIMA, THEREBY INITIATING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE SWIFT, BY TAU 48, AS 08W IS
RAPIDLY INCORPORATED INTO AND POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, 08W
WILL BECOME A COLD CORE BAROCLINIC LOW, DEVOID OF ANY SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTIC.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT,
SHOWING A 30NM CROSS TRACK SPREADING AT TAU 24 THAT BECOMES 82NM AT
TAU 48. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MINIMAL DEVIATION. FOR THIS
REASON, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: ---
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: ---//
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