WDPN34 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 34.3N 146.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 360 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 24 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY
DEFINED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMP FLARING
CONVECTION ALOFT. SHEAR IS MODERATE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE
TYPHOON 08W TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 141558Z GCOM W1 AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS
A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND NEARLY
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING. THE LLCC IS ASYMMETRICAL AND
ELONGATED FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
EIR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 1900Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 1900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST FOR EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS MOVED UPWARD TO COMPLETE BY TAU 48.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. FROM TAU 24-48, THE TD
WILL CONTINUE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND ULTIMATELY TRACK DUE WEST BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. WHILE ROUNDING THE RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AND SHALLOW WHILE ENTERING COOLER WATERS AFTER TAU 12,
COUPLED WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE WEAKENING. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BECOMING FRONTAL AND BAROCLINIC WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, ULTIMATELY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU
48. IT NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT THE TD MAY REACH
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 08W INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TD 09W WILL ROUND THE CURVE OF THE STR TO THE EAST, HOWEVER
THERE ARE MODEL OUTPUTS IN HOW STARKLY IT WILL TURN BASED ON HOW
SHALLOW AND WEAK THE SYSTEM BECOMES. NAVGEM REFLECTS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WHILE JGSM REFLECTS A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH. THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 48 IS 165NM, SUPPORTING A MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THE FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A CONSISTENT 25KT INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN IN HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT MAY
INTENSIFY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING, WHICH IS REPRESENTED AS A
POSSIBILITY FOR INTENSIFICATION ON GFS, HWRF, AND HAFS-A.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN