WDPN34 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) WARNING 
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 31.9N 147.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 396 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SHALLOW AND ELLIPTICAL LLCC CONTINUING TO BROADEN OUT AS IT TRACKS
RAPIDLY POLEWARD. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST, WHILE
BEING WEDGED BETWEEN TY 08W TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRONG STR TO THE
EAST. VERTICAL SHEAR AND OUTFLOW FROM TY 08W CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF TD 09W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY OF THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE, AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING DECREASING SSTS, WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH WESTERLY SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 140600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 141230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT BY TAU 12
SHOULD BEGIN ITS NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND TRANSIT
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWARD, IT WILL MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE WESTERLY OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM TY 08W, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR A STEADY INTENSITY, BUT GIVEN THE BRIEFLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS (SLIGHTLY REDUCED
SHEAR, MAINTAINED SSTS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT)
THE SYSTEM MAY MAKE A SHORT RUN FOR 35 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN, LEADING TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK, APART FROM GALWEM, WHICH IS
TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TAUS. THIS IS HOWEVER
ASSESSED TO BE A CIRCULATION JUMP TO TY 08W. JTWC TRACK REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS. AS FAR AS
INTENSITY FORECAST, THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER SOME MEMBERS PRODUCE SOME
REINTENSIFICATION. THE MAJOR OUTLIER REMAINS THE HWRF, WHICH SHOWS
A 20 KT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS, WHICH IS MOST
LIKELY DRIVEN BY MORE BAROCLINIC FORCING RATHER THAN TROPICAL, AS THE 
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDES. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST 
REMAINS WITH GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER PAST THAT POINT, DISREGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION, SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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