WDPN34 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.6N 148.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 370 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY
SHALLOW, BROAD AND ELLIPTICAL LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY RACING
NORTHWESTWARD, DRIVEN BY THE STRONG STR TO THE EAST, BUT IS ALSO
IMPACTED BY THE SHEAR AND OUTFLOW COMING FROM TS 08W TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN EXPOSED LLCC AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE, WITH BORDERLINE SSTS, HIGH WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 140600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 140600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWEST, AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHEAST. WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TAUS - 12 AND 24 - THE SYSTEM WILL
WRAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING RIDGE, AND
THEREFORE TURN NORTHEAST. AT THAT STAGE TD WUKONG IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DISSIPATING, REACHING 20 KTS MAX INTENSITY BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM, WHICH IS
TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TAUS, HOWEVER, THIS IS
ASSESSED TO BE A CIRCULATION JUMP TO TS 08W. THE JTWC TRACK IS
THEREFORE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FOR INTENSITY FORECAST, THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS PREDICT STEADY
WEAKENING, WHICH THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS WITH. THE MAJOR OUTLIER
IS HWRF SHOWS A 25 KT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS, AS
WELL AS HAFS-A AND GFS WHICH ARE PREDICTING 10 KTS INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY AND SLOW WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. THE AIDS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION ARE LIKELY DRIVEN
BY MORE BAROCLINIC FORCING RATHER THAN TROPICAL, AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS TO WEAKLY INTERACT WITH
THE JET STREAM AFTER TAU 48. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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