WDPN34 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.9N 148.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 356 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD,
ELLIPTICAL, EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION WELL DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS OVERALL
QUITE DISORGANIZED AND HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO WRAP DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE LLCC AS SOME MODELS EXPECTED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KTS BASED ON A BLEND OF
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR MASS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) REMAINS
DISORGANIZED, AND IS FAILING TO DEVELOP A MORE COHERENT STRUCTURE
THAT WAS EXPECTED BY SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS, HAFS-A, AND HWRF.
WITH VERTICAL SHEAR AND NEARBY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
LIMITED, IF ANY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. A TRACK NORTHWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TAKE WUKONG OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AFTER 24 HOURS. COMBINED WITH A FAST FORWARD MOTION
WITHIN THE BACKGROUND STEERING FLOW, WUKONG'S CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT TURNS EASTWARD IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THE FAST FORWARD MOTION MAY MAINTAIN 25-30 KT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT THIS FORECAST TERMINATES AT THE
POINT WHEN DISINTEGRATION OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AT
48 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EXCLUDING HWRF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: ---
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: ---//
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