WDPN34 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.1N 149.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 672 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS EXPANDED WITH FRAGMENTED AND SHORT FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY
THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THIS SYSTEM IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN RIM OF A
MONSOON GYRE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DIRECT 131040Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING A
TIGHT LLC AND STRONGER WINDS TRAILING 70+ NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS
THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND
MODERATE VENTILATION OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS AND CONVECTIVE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LAYER OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 131200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 131200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 31 KTS AT 131130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
EAST, TS WUKONG WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS OF A RECEDING STR THAT IS WEAKENED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A MODEST
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST, CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW, COOLING SST, AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFUM
AS THE SOLE AND EXTREME LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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