WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 
023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 40.3N 139.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 64 NM WEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, ANIMATED RADAR DATA, SCATTEROMETER DATA AND AN
EARLIER SAR PASS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TS 06W (MARIA) HAS RAPIDLY JUMPED THE
JAPANESE ALPS AND REFORMED OVER WATER OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
HONSHU. THE EIR SHOWS THAT THE VORTEX DECOUPLED AS IT CROSSED THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND IS NOW DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE
120830Z RCM-3 SAR PASS REVEALED A WEAK LLCC HAD ALREADY STARTED TO
FORM AS EARLY AS THE 0900Z HOUR AND A 121104Z ASCAT-B PASS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK CIRCULATION WEST OF HONSHU. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAR PASS SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS STREAMING
THROUGH THE TSUGARU STRAIT AND OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST SEA OF JAPAN.
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL, WITH
BORDERLINE SSTS, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND WEAK
OUTFLOW ALOFT THOUGH SHEAR DOES REMAIN LOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MARIA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF A RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND AS IT DOES SO,
INCREASINGLY COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
MANCHURIA BY TAU 24, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING OUT INTO
THE SEA OF JAPAN. BY THIS TIME, THE REMNANT VORTEX OF TS 06W WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND A RAPID TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TS 06W DISSIPATES
IN THE WESTERN APPROACHES OF THE TSUGARU STRAIT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWEST, THEN TURN SHARPLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 36 HOUR DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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