WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 
022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 39.8N 141.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 37 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) IS ASSESSED TO HAVE MADE LANDFALL
OFUNATO, JAPAN, AT 120000Z BASED ON JAPANESE RADAR DATA. HAVING
MOVED OVER A WARM OCEAN EDDY, THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENED IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT
LANDFALL BASED ON A 112037Z RCM-2 SAR PASS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY TRAVERSED INLAND OVER
NORTHERN HONSHU AND IS NOW SITUATED NEAR THE CENTRAL SPINE OF THE
NORTHERN JAPANESE ALPS. A 120529Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A VERY SMALL INNER CORE OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
LOW-LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. RADAR FIXES
SUGGEST A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VORTEX TILT, NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE JAPANESE ALPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR FIXES AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN RJTD OVERLAND DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0, AND A
CIMSS DMINT ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS AT 120539Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL, DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES, SOME CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND
THE LACK OF AN OVER WATER HEAT SOURCE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 120030Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 40 KTS AT 120530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 22-23 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W (MARIA) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHWEST, ALONG THE STRONG STEERING
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
REEMERGENCE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE JAPANESE ALPS WILL
TEAR THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX APART, LEAVING THE SYSTEM IN A DECOUPLED
ENVIRONMENT. REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX OVER WATER IS
ANTICIPATED, BUT THE LACK OF WARM WATERS (SSTS ARE JUST 22-23C IN
THE NORTHERN SEA OF JAPAN), VERY DRY AIR AND THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW MECHANISM, MEANS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. AS IT WEAKENS BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, IT WILL COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW STREAMING OFF OF ASIAN CONTINENT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE REMNANTS OF TS 06W WILL TURN SHARPLY EAST AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHWARD AT THE WESTERN ENTRANCE TO THE TSUGARU
STRAIT, AS THEY DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS EVEN AGREEING ON THE SHARP TURN EAST AND SOUTH
AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 24, THEN LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT TAU 36, CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD AT THIS
POINT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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