WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 
020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 38.3N 142.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 149 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRUGGLING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH. RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENED STRUCTURE OF THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION WITH A SHARP POCKET OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED
EIR AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 1900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN STR LOCATED TO THE
EAST, MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHERN JAPAN WITHIN THE
NEXT TWELVE HOURS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN WHILE IN A REGION OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
BE DRAWN DOWN THE COAST BY THE STORM. LATER IN THE FORECAST,
INTERACTION WITH THE JAPANESE ALPS WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING
AND BEGIN DISSIPATING BY TAU 24 IN THE SEA OF JAPAN WHEN THE STORM
RE-ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
REINTENSIFICATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY AGREES THAT
TS 06W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN JAPAN. THE
MINIMAL CROSS TRACK DISTANCE OF 45KTS BY TAU 36 CONTRIBUTES TO THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSELY TO
THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEAN. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES IN
CONSISTENT AND RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BASED ON THE
TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN JAPAN AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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