WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA)        
WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 37.8N 143.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 184 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR 
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED EYE 
FEATURE, WHICH HAS SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED SINCE ABOUT 111200Z. AN 
110821Z RCM-3 SAR PASS DEPICTS 50-55 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE 
INNER EYEWALL, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON RECENT JMA RADAR FIXES AS WELL AS EIR IMAGERY. A STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO 
AID IN THE RECENT REINTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE
NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 111200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 61 KTS AT 111200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. TS 06W 
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONSHU OVER THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 12. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM 
HAS REMAINED RESILIENT AND MAY POSSIBLY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE 
NEAR-TERM. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TS 06W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE 
JAPAN ALPS WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED IN THE TAU 36 TO TAU 48 TIME 
PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. RELIABLE INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 
THE 110600Z GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO 
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS SHOWING DISSIPATION IN THE SEA OF JAPAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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