WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA)        
WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 36.2N 145.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 317 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL 
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN OBSCURED CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE 
101141Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, A 
100813Z RCM-3 SAR IMAGE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE RING OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS, 
WITH AN AREA OF 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND A 
MAXIMUM WIND VALUE OF 50 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 101051Z ASCAT-B IMAGE 
SHOWS 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B AND RCM-
3 SAR IMAGES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET TO THE NORTH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM SST VALUES (28C).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 101130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 101200Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 46 KTS AT 100815Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W HAS SLOWED AND TURNED 
NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT APPROACHES THE RUGGED COAST OF 
NORTHERN HONSHU, TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER ALONG THE COAST. HEAVY 
RAINS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONSHU DUE TO THE 
WARM, MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SIGNIFICANT FURTHER
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS TS 06W TRACKS OVER THE JAPAN ALPS, WITH
THE SYSTEM EMERGING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN NEAR TAU 48 AS A WEAK
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 06W (MARIA) WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER SST (24-25C). 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, 
WITH A 65 TO 100NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 
72. THE 100600Z EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A WIDER SPREAD OF 
SOLUTIONS BUT REVEAL A LIKELY LANDFALL LOCATION BETWEEN 37N AND 40N. 
BOTH ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MARKED WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA OF JAPAN, 
ESPECIALLY THE EPS, HOWEVER, GEFS DOES SHOW A SMALL NUMBER OF 
SOLUTIONS (15 PERCENT) THAT REINTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN SEA OF JAPAN. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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