WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA)        
WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 36.0N 145.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 319 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE CENTER. A 100605Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RECENT AIDT AND DPRINT ESTIMATES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A JET TO THE NORTH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
SST VALUES (28C).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 100400Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 47 KTS AT 100530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W HAS TURNED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT APPROACHES THE RUGGED COAST OF NORTHERN
HONSHU, TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER ALONG THE COAST. HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONSHU DUE TO THE WARM,
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SIGNIFICANT FURTHER
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS TS 06W TRACKS OVER THE JAPAN ALPS, WITH THE
SYSTEM EMERGING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN NEAR TAU 48 AS A WEAK
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 06W (MARIA) WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER SST (24-25C). 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH A 70 TO 125NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM
TAU 48 TO TAU 72. THE 100000Z EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
WIDER SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BUT REVEAL A LIKELY LANDFALL LOCATION
BETWEEN 37N AND 40N. BOTH ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MARKED WEAKENING
TREND IN THE SEA OF JAPAN, ESPECIALLY THE EPS, HOWEVER, GEFS DOES
SHOW A SMALL NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS (15 PERCENT) THAT REINTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS INTO THE 
WESTERN SEA OF JAPAN. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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