WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 35.0N 146.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 396 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE VORTEX AS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W TRACKS NORTHWARD. DRY AIR INTRUSION IS
STILL APPARENT IN A BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WATERS WITH A HIGHER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC). A 092022Z RCM-2 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE
DEPICTS A CLEAR EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE AND INDICATES A MAXIMUM OF 52KT
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR IMAGE
AND MSI.THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR IMAGERY AND THE AGENCY
AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 0030Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 0100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE ALTERING COURSE
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE ENTERING A REGION
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BECOME NEARLY
CONVERGENT. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER COOL WATERS
BELOW 26C WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE TROPICAL STORM. THE
WEAKENED STRUCTURE OF THE STORM AND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MAINLAND JAPAN BRING VARIABILITY IN THE POTENTIAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM COMES BACK OUT OVER WATER BY TAU 72 AND
ULTIMATELY DISSIPATES BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE OVERALL NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER GFS IS A SOUTHERLY
OUTLIER TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD REPRESENTING A RIDGE THAT
PUSHES FARTHER WEST. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE AND THE TRACK TAKES THE
SYSTEM OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OUTLIER TO
CONSISTENT WEAKENING IS HAFS-A, WHICH FORECASTS A SLIGHT INCREASE
TO 55KTS BETWEEN TAU 12-24. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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