WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.9N 124.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 253 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
DUE TO THE DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, TYPHOON (TY) 05W HAS FLIRTED WITH EYE FORMATION OVER THE PAST 
FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CORE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO THE CENTER. A 230944Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE 
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLES, WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OR NOTCH 
POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST 
EASTWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE EAST, AND 
VERY STRONG, BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST AND OCEAN 
HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH AND SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 
TO 102 KNOTS. CIMSS ADT, AIDT AND DPRINT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
REMAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER AND RANGE FROM 84-89 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST, WITH A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 87 KTS AT 231300Z
   CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 231200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 231200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 89 KTS AT 231300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 05W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN 
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO THE STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTH.
DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING
EYE, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 18 WITH A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS AT TAU 12. NEAR TAU 24, VWS WILL INCREASE
AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN AND ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT. AFTER TY 05W 
MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA NEAR TAU 48, A SERIES OF MAJOR 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG INTO NORTHEAST CHINA WEAKENING AND 
REORIENTING THE STR, ALLOWING TY 05W TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE 
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 
96. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. 
AFTER TAU 48, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, NAVGEM AND JGSM (THE SOLE OUTLIERS) TURN 
THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. THE 230000Z 
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES (GEFS, EPS) GENERALLY SHOW A SIMILAR SPREAD OF 
SOLUTIONS OVER CHINA, REFLECTING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
SUPPORTS THE RI PHASE WITH NUMEROUS RI FORECAST AIDS TRIGGERED AND 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAKING AS HIGH AS 120 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 
24, GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
NNNN