WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.9N 128.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 628 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (GAEMI) AS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE TO BECOME
VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONTINUES TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED MSI,
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING AROUND 20 KTS CURRENTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 05W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ENHANCED
BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WARM (30-31
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY THE MODERATE (20 KTS)
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE VERTICAL ALIGNMENT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HINDRANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF HONSHU. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 200600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 200600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 200600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU
36. AROUND TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA. 05W IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS
TRACK THROUGH TAU 96 WHEN RIDGING OVER EASTERN CHINA TAKES OVER THE
STEERING AND DRIVES THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. CONCERNING THE
INTENSITY FORECAST, 05W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS TO AROUND 70 KTS DUE TO WARM SST AND HIGH OHC VALUES
BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (25-30 KTS)
DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER TAU 72, VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
DRASTICALLY AND WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST INTENSIFICATION. NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, 05W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING
WITH COOLER SST AND LAND INTERACTION BEGINNING TO BE A FACTOR.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 250 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72, WHICH
INCREASES TO AROUND 300 NM AT TAU 120, WITH ALL JTWC CONSENSUS
MEMBERS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST OF OKINAWA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
UKMET, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRACK EAST OF TAIWAN AS WELL. THIS
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72,
AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THROUGH
TAU 72 AS WELL, DEPICTING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION PHASE TO AROUND
60-75 KTS. AFTER TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE SPLITS WITH COAMPS-TC CALLING
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KTS WHILE GFS AND HAFS-A CALL FOR A
MORE MODEST PEAK OF AROUND 80-90 KTS. THE JTWC INTENITY FORECAST IS
PLACED BETWEEN THE TWO POSSIBILITIES AND IN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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