WDPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 112.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 175 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE SWATH OF
CONVECTION BLOWN SOUTH OF THE CENTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25KTS. NEVERTHELESS, THE VORTEX PERSISTS WITH
STRONG FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEAKER
FORMATIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC IN
THE ANIMATED MSI AND A 312257Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTING DISTINCT
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SHORT-LIVED
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF CHINA AND MAKE LANDFALL WEST
OF MACAO. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TIME TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN
THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO A DROP IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 10-15KTS
WHILE REMAINING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IMMEDIATELY
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL, TD 02W WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BELOW 25C, WHICH MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED
BY A FAVORABLE DECREASE IN SHEAR. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED
OVER LAND, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT REMNANTS WILL COME BACK OUT OVER
WATER IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND INTERACT WITH THE MEI-YU FRONT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 12 THAT TD 02W WILL TRACK TOWARDS LAND. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BASED ON HOW STRONGLY THEY
INTERPRET INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS VARIED
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS. HWRF AND GFS FORECAST
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 45KTS BT TAU 12, WHILE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A
FORECAST SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 30KTS WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE SOLUTIONS OF
HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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