WDIO31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.4N 88.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF A STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN A 260411Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON 45-50 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE ASCAT DATA. THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD,
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER, PERSISTENT STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND RECENTLY
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
AND DERIVED UPPER-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 260322Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 260300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B WILL CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING HIGH ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW VWS, AND DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED BROAD
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE INDIA AND 
BANGLADESH BORDER, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, BUT 
IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD 
FROM THE CENTER GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER MAKING 
LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12, TC 01B WILL CONTINUE INLAND AND DISSIPATE 
BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP AND STEERING PATTERN, WITH MINOR
CROSS-TRACK DEVIATIONS IN TRACK DEPICTIONS BASED ON DIFFERING
REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND THE STORM ITSELF. ALL
GUIDANCE CARRIES THE SYSTEM CENTER INLAND NEAR THE INDIA AND 
BANGLADESH BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH FROM 
THERE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM 
NOT NECESSARILY LOCATED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. NUMERICAL FORECAST 
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, 
WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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