WDIO31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL)     
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4N 89.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 195 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
A 252015Z AMSR-2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST 
VALUES OF 30-31 C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK 
ESTIMATES. ADDITIONALLY, THE 260000Z DPRINT OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE 
OF 43 KNOTS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 260000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 260000Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 43 KTS AT 260000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER REGION OF
INDIA AND BANGLADESH NEAR TAU 24. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 
24 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AT TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAU 30 AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE 
WARM, WET DELTA REGION. AFTER TAU 30, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN 
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHILE RAPIDLY 
DISSIPATING. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE 
CENTER.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 65 NM AT TAU 24, DIVERGING FURTHER AS
THE SYSTEM RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC
(NAVGEM INITIAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS), RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MODERATE SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY VALUES FROM 45 TO 52
KNOTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS WARNINGS. THE 251800Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY ENSEMBLE
INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A 20
PERCENT PROBABILITY THROUGH TAU 18. THE LATEST EPS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SIMILAR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS LENDING MEDIUM
OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN