WDIO31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL)      
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 89.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 231 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251538Z
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, BROAD
SYSTEM, WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
AND WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 251539Z 
ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES OF 29-30 C. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
RECENT ASCAT DATA AND THE KNES, DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES. ADDITIONALLY, 
THE 251730Z ADT, AIDT AND DPRINT OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 34-35 
KNOTS SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 251642Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 34 KTS AT 251900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER REGION OF
INDIA AND BANGLADESH AT TAU 24. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH
TAU 24 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AT TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAU 30 AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE
WARM, WET DELTA REGION. AFTER TAU 30, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHILE
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED AWAY
FROM THE CENTER.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 96 NM AT TAU 24, DIVERGING FURTHER AS
THE SYSTEM RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES A LARGE SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY VALUES FROM 50 TO 65
KNOTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE JTWC
INTENSITY CONSENSUS, NEAR THE COAMPS-TC (GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS) AND 
HAFS-A PEAK INTENSITY VALUES. THE 251200Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY
ENSEMBLE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH
A 20-30 PERCENT PROBABILITY THROUGH TAU 18. THE LATEST EPS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SIMILAR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS LENDING MEDIUM
OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN