WDXS31 PGTW 220300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 
012 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 3.4S 41.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 256 NM NORTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO GIVE UP THE GHOST FOR THE PAST 18
HOURS, INTENSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FINALLY OVERCOMING THE SYSTEM. BOTH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY CONFIRMS DISPERSION WITHIN THE CORE AND
A DISTINCT LINE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR HAS FORMED OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENTS ARE PLUNGING RAPIDLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
ISBASED ON A COMBINATION OF FMEE AND PGTW DVORAKS AND FOUR
OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS OF 40 TO 50KTS FROM CIMSS AIDS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS
POSITIONED AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DISTINCE LINE OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE THAT LIES OVER TANZANIA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 212243Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 220000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EQUATORWARD TRACK OF THE VORTEX IS TAKING
THE SYSTEM INTO AN AREA OF LOWER CORIOLIS VALUES AND HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS ALSO MARGINAL AND
FALLING ALTHOUGH A THIN LAYER OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXISTS ALONG TRACK. IALY IS BREATHING ITS LAST BREATHS AND
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EVEN FIND AT 12 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD KENYA AND TANZANIA
THEY WILL BE SPARED SEVERE EFFECTS FROM TC 24S.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS EMPHATIC IN SHOWING A DRAMATIC
PLUNGE IN INTENSITY. MOST VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LOSING THE VORTEX
BETWEEN SIX AND 18 HOURS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM

4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
PROHIBITS ISSUING A FINAL WARNING. THE FINAL WARNING WILL COME WHEN
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH WILL OCCUR AT
EITHER 220600Z OR 221200Z.//
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