WDPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL)       
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 156.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 602 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS, WITH FRAGMENTED CORE CONVECTION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
FLARING ALONG AN ELONGATED LINE DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). AN 111132Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS SHARP 
CYCLONIC TURNING, WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR A WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER 
BUT ALSO SHOWS EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DISRUPTING 
THE SYSTEM'S OVERALL WIND FIELD. THIS WEAKENING OR DISRUPTION OF THE 
CORE IS EVIDENT IN AN 111128Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH 
REVEALS WEAK BANDING AND TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND 
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 111129Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 111200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 111200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 43 KTS AT 111200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P IS FORECAST TO SLOW
AND TURN WESTWARD AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO 
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 12, TC 22P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE FLOW. TC 22P WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING (30 TO 35
KNOTS) VWS, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, TRACK CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED
AT MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST,
SPECIFICALLY, THE ERRATIC TRACK MOTION AS THE SYSTEM REVERSES
TRACK. THE 110000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 110000Z GFS ENSEMBLE
(GEFS) SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH ALL SOLUTIONS
INDICATING RAPID WEAKENING. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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