WDPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL)       
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 155.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 590 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT 
SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE 
BURSTS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FORTUNATELY, 
AN 110603Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE 
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS 
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND 
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 110530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P IS FORECAST TO SLOW
AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER
THROUGH TAU 12, WITH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS. AFTER
TAU 12, A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE FLOW. TC 22P WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING (25 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, TRACK CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED
AT MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST,
SPECIFICALLY, THE ERRATIC TRACK MOTION AS THE SYSTEM REVERSES TRACK.
THE 101800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 110000Z GFS ENSEMBLE
(GEFS) SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING 
RAPID WEAKENING. THE 110000Z COAMPS-TC (CTCXEPS) ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 
60 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF STEADY INTENSITY (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS)
THROUGH TAU 18.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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