WDPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 154.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 545 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM IN THE CORAL SEA WITH SHORT CURVED BANDS
TUCKED IN THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED
AND TOTALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON TRACING AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF EXPOSED LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE CDO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES REFLECTS THE
SLIGHT CONVECTIVE DEEPENING. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MODERATE (15-20 
KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSETTING THE WARM 
SST AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: EXTRAPOLATION FROM LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ORIENTED NW-SE
AND ANCHORED TO THE EAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 102330Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 110000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS THE NER RECEDES EASTWARD AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS (STR) TO 
THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN A STEERING IMPASSE. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR 
IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE 
CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHILE IN QS MOTION AND UNDER 
MODERATE VWS, MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 24. 
AFTERWARD, AS IT STARTS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, THE RELATIVE VWS 
WILL ONLY GET WORSE AS IT TRACKS DIRECTLY AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL WIND 
FLOW, GRADUALLY ERODING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS DOWN THE TRACK, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WHOLE OF JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THESE VARIABILITY
ALSO LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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