WDXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING 
NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 113.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 173 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED CIRA PROXY VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
VIGOROUS BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAS HAMPERED IDENTIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OLDER SSMIS DATA SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED
ON THE PGTW FIX, HOWEVER, MULTI-AGENCY FIX SPREAD IS LARGE, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE POSITIONING. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AS IT
ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS GIVEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF T2.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY HIGHER,
AND DEEMED UNREPRESENTATIVE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK WAS RE-ANALYZED
DOWN TO 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH
CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS, AND
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD TILTED VORTEX. THE GFS INDICATES A TONGUE OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DESPITE FAVORABLE SSTS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS, TC 14P HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN A CONSOLIDATED
LLCC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK. R34 WAS REDUCED
BASED ON REANALYSIS OF PRIOR INTENSITY DOWN TO 35 KNOTS. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL STR TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 230930Z
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 231930Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE
STR, PRIMARILY TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MAKING LANDFALL. MULTI-MODEL 
TRACK CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVEN THE STRAIGHT-FORWARD 
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PEAK INTENSITY WAS HELD TO 35 KNOTS. TC 
LINCOLN HAS A SHORT WINDOW REMAINING FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 
24, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST
SHOULD TAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. RAPID DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED POST-LANDFALL. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE OVER-ANALYZED IN THE GFS
MODEL. ECMWF APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTICALLY ANALYZING THE BROAD AND 
POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC, AND THIS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE FOR ANY 
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL 
ANALYSIS, GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN