WDXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8S 113.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 212 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231035Z
SSMIS 89 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) 14P (LINCOLN) EXHIBITING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. BETWEEN 230900Z AND 231200Z, INTERMITTENT
EXPLOSIVE FLARING CONVECTION EMERGED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
A SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TILTED VORTEX. AS INDICATED BY NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE MID-LEVELS OF TC 14P, RESTRAINING THE
SYSTEM FROM FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (29-30 C), THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 231149Z GMI 89 GHZ SATELLITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 231130Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 45 KTS AT 231100Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 39 KTS AT 231148Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM TAU 00
TO TAU 36. IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (TAU 00) TO MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT (TAU 06), 14P IS ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE TC, COMING TO DISSIPATION
PRIOR TO TAU 36 OVER LAND. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR 112NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA WITH AN INTENSITY BETWEEN
35 KTS AND 30 KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 14P WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU
00 TO 12, MAINTAINING INTENSITY ALONG-TRACK. COAMPS-TC IS THE ONLY
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBER SUGGESTING A 5KTS RISE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 24, AND ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TC BEGINS DISSIPATION OVER WATER. TURNING TO
A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 24 TO 36, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COMPLETE DISSIPATION OCCURS PRIOR TO TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 36 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM//
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