WDXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.7S 113.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 217 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14P (LINCOLN) CONTINUING TO SHOW DEEP, CENTRAL
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE DEEPEST ELEMENTS
OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS OBSERVED IN A 230609Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO VERY LOW (0 - 5
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THOUGH VWS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, NUMERICAL MODEL INDICATED 
DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ENTRAINING THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SEMICIRCLES, WITH COASTAL STATION OBSERVATIONS REPORTING AS LOW AS
47 PCT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MARDIE, AUS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 230551Z AMSR2 36.5 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 230217Z PARTIAL METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY
IMAGE AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTHEAST
OF THE ASSESSED LLCC.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS DPRINT: 38 KTS AT 230700Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 
FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR LOCATED OVER WESTERN 
AUSTRALIA. ALONG TRACK, AND SUBMERGED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, THE TC IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 40KTS BY TAU 
12 AND MAINTAIN UNTIL JUST AFTER TAU 36. FAVORABLE VWS AND SST 
CONTINUE TO OFFSET MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY (50-60 PCT) AND POOR 
DIVERGENCE THROUGH TAU 12, AT WHICH POINT AN INCREASE IN VWS TO 
MODERATE LEVELS (15-20) BY TAU 24 WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO 
BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN
SOUTHERN SHARK BAY, AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 48 AS A 30KTS DISSIPATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE (DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND INTENSITY).

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 40NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 24, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 89NM CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA (240500Z). HOWEVER, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DIVERGES
BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS TO APPROXIMATELY 158 NM, OFFERING
MODERATE (MEDIUM) CONFIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST INTERVAL (TAU 00 TO
TAU 72). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, THE LARGEST INTENSITY SPREAD OF 15KTS IS PRESENT AT TAU 36,
SUGGESTING MODERATE (MEDIUM) CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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