WDXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.0S 115.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14P AS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WELL-STRUCTURED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. ANIMATED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED, AS DEPICTED
BY THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA. CONVECTIVE BURSTS WERE
SEEN DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION, BUT SO
FAR HAVE FAILED TO WRAP UPSHEAR INTO THE DRY AIR. OUTFLOW ALOFT FOR
14P HAS REMAINED WEAK WITH NO DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 222204Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING A BROAD CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE WEST FROM THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A 222204Z SMAP WINDSPEED IMAGE
SHOWING 32 KTS (34 KTS WHEN CONVERTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 0000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 0000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P HAS CONTINUED ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 14P
IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AT TAU 12 AS THE STR
CHANGES ORIENTATION TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. AT AROUND TAU 24-36
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AT TAU 48, TC 14P IS FORECASTED
TO START A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 14P IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VERY LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS
AND WARM SST, WHICH HAS HELPED ORGANIZE THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST
6-12 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 24
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAVE REMAINED THE MAIN FACTOR IN HINDERING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, VWS INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS, COOLING
SST, AND LOWERING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM AT TAU 36 AND A 70 NM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN MUCH LESS AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT
TAU 72. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS (BOTH
NAVGEM AND GFS) DEPICTING A NEAR-RAPID PACE OF INTENSIFICATION, UP
TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING COAMPS-TC, HWRF AND HAFS-A DEPICT A SLOWER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND LOWER PEAK BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE
AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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