WDXS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.0S 115.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P AS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WELL-STRUCTURED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED, AS DEPICTED BY THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA. CONVECTIVE BURSTS WERE SEEN DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION, BUT SO FAR HAVE FAILED TO WRAP UPSHEAR INTO THE DRY AIR. OUTFLOW ALOFT FOR 14P HAS REMAINED WEAK WITH NO DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 222204Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING A BROAD CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE WEST FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A 222204Z SMAP WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWING 32 KTS (34 KTS WHEN CONVERTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 0000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P HAS CONTINUED ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AT TAU 12 AS THE STR CHANGES ORIENTATION TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. AT AROUND TAU 24-36 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AT TAU 48, TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO START A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 14P IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VERY LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS AND WARM SST, WHICH HAS HELPED ORGANIZE THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 24 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAVE REMAINED THE MAIN FACTOR IN HINDERING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, VWS INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS, COOLING SST, AND LOWERING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM AT TAU 36 AND A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN MUCH LESS AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SOMEHWAT MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS (BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS) DEPICTING A NEAR-RAPID PACE OF INTENSIFCATION, UP TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING COAMPS-TC, HWRF AND HAFS-A DEPICT A SLOWER PACE OF INTENSIFICATION AND LOWER PEAK BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN