WDXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) 
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.7S 116.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 305 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14P AS HAVING DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION AND
LITTLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 221737Z AMSR-2 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED A OVERALL BETTER LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE THAN THE EIR WOULD
SUGGEST, WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED CENTER. HOWEVER, THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY
EVIDENT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, INDICATIVE OF A MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR VECTOR AND DRY AIR FLOWING OFF THE CONTINENT. A
221415Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE WIND FIELD IS MUCH WEAKER
THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED, WITH THE SCATTEROMETER SHOWING 25-28 KNOT
WINDS. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY (T2.5 OR 35 KTS) AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE MUCH HIGHER, RANGING FROM 40-47 KTS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE DROPPED FROM 40 KTS TO 30 KTS TO
BETTER MIRROR THE ASCAT IMAGE PREVIOSLY MENTIONED.  THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE NOTED ABOVE SHOWING A CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 1800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 1800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO
THE EAST. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P HAS CONTINUED TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN SOUTH AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION. TC 14P WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48 AND WILL PASS WEST OF LEARMONTH AT AROUND
TAU 36. TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TAU
36 AND 48 TO THE SOUTH OF LEARMONTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS INLAND AUSTRALIA AFTER IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATE. REGARDING THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 45 KTS AT TAU 24 DUE TO LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS AND WARM SST.
THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS DUE TO VERY WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT CAUSED BY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ACTING AS A
BARRIER TO THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TAU 36, WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING TREND. AT
TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 30 KTS AND LAND INTERACTION
STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS A RESULT, TC 14P WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND NO LATER THAN TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 50 NM AT TAU 36 AND 80
NM AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS CONSIDERABLY
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72 (NOT FACTORING IN
UEMI, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INSTEAD OF TAKING
A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN). INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT PEAK
INTENSITY WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND TAU 24-36, IN THE 40-45 KT
RANGE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF
THE GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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