WDXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4S 58.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
FLARING CONVECTION REPLACING PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. 
THE SYSTEM TAPPED INTO STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT COURTESY OF AN 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, 
DRY AIR (RH NEAR 50 PCT) HAS BEGUN TO ENTRAIN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLES, AS EVIDENCED BY A GENERAL PARTIAL CLEARING OF 
HYDROMETEORS IN EACH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 221003Z AMSR2 89GHZ
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 221011Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 221200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 221200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD 
FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A STR TO THE EAST WHILE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 
60KTS AT TAU 12. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED 
TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 12, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(30+ KTS) AND POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT ONSETTING AND STARTING A WEAKENING 
TREND. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48, A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT ARISES, 
WHERE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WILL TRANSITION FROM A STR EAST 
OF THE LLCC TO A STR WEST OF THE LLCC, CAUSING A TURN TO A WESTWARD 
TRACK BY TAU 36. TC 16S IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK WESTWARD FROM TAU 36 
TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 96, WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING OVER 
WATER PRIOR TO TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL TRAVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
24, AND THEN TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36. THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 36 BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS 34NM,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE WESTWARD TURN. FOLLOWING THE TURN
(TAU 36 TO TAU 96) CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE FROM ONE ANOTHER TO A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 226NM BY TAU 96, OFFERING MODERATE UNCERTAINTY
AFTER TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN