WDXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN)
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.6S 118.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 368 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14P (LINCOLN) FURTHER CONSOLIDATING WITH DEEP,
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION EXHIBITING OVERSHOOTING TOPS LOITERED
WITH REPORTS OF LIGHTNING. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) AND VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK DIVERGENCE
AND AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION), OBSERVABLE IN A 221052Z SSMIS 37GHZ
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, WILL LIKELY KEEP INTENSIFICATION LIMITED
TO A GRADUAL RISE OVER TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROWLEY
SHOALS REPORTED 29KTS EASTERLIES AT 220800Z, APPROXIMATELY 25NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC AT CPA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 220830Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 221230Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 221230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 12 AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO TAU 48. A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR TO TAU 48, PEAKING NEAR 50KTS.
LEARMONTH MAY BE IMPACTED BY WINDS AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY DUE TO COMPOUNDING THE STORMS TRACK SPEED WITH
TC INTENSITY (FRONT-LEFT QUADRANT). AT TAU 48, THE EMERGENCE OF
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM, COMING TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND PRIOR TO TAU
72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TC 14P WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU
00 TO TAU 12 AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK BY TAU
48, GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE SAME INTERVAL. A
TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 38NM IS PRESENT BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS
MEMBERS NEAR TAU 36. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SUGGEST A TRACK WEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, PLACING LEARMONTH IN THE FRONT-LEFT QUADRANT
OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
LANDFALL TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 48 90NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AS
THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AND TURNS TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION OVER LAND WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO TAU
72.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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