WDXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.8S 119.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 446 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14P (LINCOLN) FURTHER CONSOLIDATING WITH DEEP,
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INCREASED CURVED BANDING EVIDENT
IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WEAK DIVERGENCE AND AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION), OBSERVABLE IN A 20144Z
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE, WILL LIKELY KEEP INTENSIFICATION
LIMITED TO A GRADUAL RISE OVER TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 220538Z 88.2GHZ ATMS SATELLITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT-B IMAGE AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39KTS AT 220600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 30KTS AT 220600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 24 AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO TAU 48. A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR TO TAU 48, PEAKING NEAR 50KTS.
LEARMONTH MAY BE IMPACTED BY WINDS AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY DUE TO COMPOUNDING THE STORMS TRACK SPEED WITH
ASSESSED INTENSITY (FRONT-LEFT QUADRANT). AT TAU 48, THE EMERGENCE
OF MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM, COMING TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND PRIOR TO
TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TC 14P WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU
00 TO TAU 24 AND THEN TURNING TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK BY TAU 48,
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE SAME INTERVAL. A TIGHT
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 44NM IS PRESENT BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBER
AT TAU 48. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SUGGEST A TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, PLACING LEARMONTH IN THE FRONT-LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM NEAR TAU 48.  FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 72, MODELS INDICATE
LANDFALL TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 54 90NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AS
THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AND TURNS TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION OVER LAND WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 72
AND TAU 96.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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