WDXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) 
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.4S 120.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 519 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14P BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA, WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 212217 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
A BROAD, BUT DEFINED CENTER WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE IN CONCJUNCTION
WITH ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 2122170Z SMOS WINDSPEED
IMAGE SHOWING 25-30 KTS WITH A COUPLE PIXELS OF 35 KTS TO THE
NORTHWEST, UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THE 2.0 (30 KTS)
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO HELPED TO REINFORCE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOT YET AVAILABLE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SOME
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST BROOME SOUNDING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL REGENERATED PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
PLACED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. IT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK
UNTIL AROUND 24, WHEN THE STR REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION, ALLOWING FOR TC 14P TO TURN SOUTHWARD. AROUND TAU 60,
TC 14 IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL, JUST WEST OF LEARMONTH. TC
14P WILL THEN MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARDS INLAND AUSTRALIA
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO A FAVORABLE,
BUT NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-30 KTS) MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AROUND
TAU 48 TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATES DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION NO LATER THAN TAU 96. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 60NM, WHILE
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHWARD, TO 250NM BY TAU 72. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 IS MEDIUM. AFTER TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE
SPREADS OUT CONSIDERABLY, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO
250NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD ALSO INCREASING TO NEARLY 350NM,
CAUSING CONFIDENCE TO DROP TO LOW IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PEAK INTENSITIES
IN THE GFS AND HAFS-A OF UP TO 50 KTS WHILE THE COAMPS-TC AND HWRF
MODELS DEPICT A MUCH LOWER INTENSITY PEAK OF NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE HIGH END, ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN,
AND CLOSE TO THE HAFS-A MODEL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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