WDXS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR)    
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 60.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 364 NM NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ALIGNING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE DIRECTLY OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH OBSERVABLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS FLARING THROUGH THE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) STRUCTURE. DRY AIR
INTRUSION HAS CEASED INTO THE CORE BUT REMAINS EVIDENT ALONG THE 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES, LIMITING EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 211210Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS AN OBSERVABLE 
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION WITH A NEWLY FORMED 
CONVECTIVE RING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, 
RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS. ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PERSISTS FROM 
12 HOURS AGO AS ENHANCED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTS THE 
RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AROUND THE LLC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA AND SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) BUILDING TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 211030Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 211200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SLOWING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING ITS EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH IN A EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION,
FORCING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF LA REUNION
NEAR TAU 96. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU
24 AS THE CORE REMAINS MOIST WITH A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS AT TAU 24,
SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUING WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28C-30C). AFTER TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY WORSEN WITH INCREASING VWS (30-35 KTS),
AND DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT INJECTED INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE,
LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 96. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT. THE TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE ALIGNED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM AT TAU
24. FOLLOWING TAU 24, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS THE STR
TO THE SOUTH BUILDS WESTWARD, DECREASING DEFINITIVE MODEL
CONFIDENCE IN THE START OF THE WESTWARD TRACK OF TC 16S JUST SOUTH
OF LA REUNION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
THE CONSENSUS AND ALIGNED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC AIDS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW)
AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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