WDXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 60.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
                         MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOWER-LEVEL
CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST SHOW DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE BETWEEN 28-29C. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
BETWEEN 15-20KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI
AND A 202335Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A LOWER-LEVEL
MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE AT 14.8S 60.6E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, AND THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 202100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S (ELEANOR) IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK SOUTH
THROUGH TAU 12 ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST BEFORE CURVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU
72. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 96), THE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO CURVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND
IS DRIVEN BY THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS. THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, STEADILY RISING AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A
REGION OF MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN TAU 18-36
(10-15KTS). AFTER TAU 36, JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CIMSS TC GUIDANCE
SHOWS ELEVATED WIND SHEAR ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, CAPPING INTENSITY AT 65KTS AT TAU 48 AND DECLINING
TO DISSIPATION (35KTS) BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) WILL TRANSIT GENERALLY
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AT VARYING SPEEDS.
MOST MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS BEGIN TO TURN TO THE WEST
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, WITH THE STARK EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH
CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CROSS-TRACK ERROR AT TAU 24 IS 100
NM BUT OPENS TO 150 BY TAU 96 (EXCLUDING NAVGEM). THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, SHOWING A
PEAK OF HAFS-A OF 62KTS AT TAU 36 AND A LOWER INTENSITY OF 50KTS AT
THE SAME TIME FROM COAMPS-TC. HOWEVER, RAW MODEL HWRF DATA SHOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY PEAKING AT 85 KTS BY TAU 48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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