WDXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 57.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP RAIN BANDS FEEDING IN
MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, CREATING A BANDING EYE-FEATURE NEAR THE
INTERSECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE BANDING EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY, BASED ON THE NEAR-CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIX ESTIMATES FROM PGTW 
AND FMEE AND THE AVERAGE OF AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS ALSO 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND REFLECTS THE 12-HR CONVECTIVE AND 
WRAP IMPROVEMENTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENSION
TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 200000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 200100Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 42 KTS AT 200100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ELEANOR WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD UNDER THE
NER. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTH
WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 120.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH A BIFURCATION
SCENARIO. THE MAIN PACK PROJECTS A TIGHTER TURN SOUTHWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF A STRONG STR. THE ALTERNATE STRAND THAT INCLUDES
AFUM, UEMN, AND UKMET CALLS FOR A WIDER TURN UP TO 245NM AT TAU 72
EAST OF THE MAIN PACK. AFTER TAU 72, BOTH SOLUTIONS DRIVE THE
VORTICES WESTWARD WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG AND ACROSS
TRACKS. IN VIEW OF THESE THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST THAT IS LAID IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MAIN PACK UP TO TAU 72,
THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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