WDXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 56.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 361 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN) HAVING RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER PAST 12 HOURS. A 190935Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALED SIGNIFICANT SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC TO WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSET SLIGHTLY (20NM) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
ASSESSED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXHIBITING
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30 - 31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER
TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 190900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, BUT CERTAINLY INTENSIFICATION OVER THIS INTERVAL.
FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK
BY THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST, FURTHER INTENSIFYING ALONG TRACK. WITH
VWS ELEVATING TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) BY TAU 36, INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SLOW THEREAFTER BUT CONTINUE GRADUALLY UP TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF NEAR 75 KTS AROUND TAU 60. AFTER TAU 60, DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE, PUTTING RESTRAINT TO ANY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND,
LASTING THROUGH TAU 120. NEAR TAU 96, WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF A STR
EAST OF THE LLCC IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
AND TURN TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK BY TAU 36 FOLLOWING THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RISE IN INTENSITY OCCUR FROM TAU 00
TO NEAR TAU 60, WHERE A LARGE 40 KTS SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS PRESENT. TANGENTIALLY, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN JTWC
CONSENSUS MEMBERS AT TAU 60 IS A VERY WIDE 334NM, GROWING LARGER
THEREAFTER AND CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF
LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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