WDPS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 137.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 00 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CORE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SIDE. NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE LLC LOCATION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE STORM HAS
BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KT)
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS AT CENTRE ISLAND NEAR
THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLC, RANGING FROM 30
TO 33 KT (10-MINUTE AVERAGED) IN RECENT HOURS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY
FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS, MIRED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND THE CORAL SEA. HOWEVER,
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A NET NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AND PUSH 14P SOUTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DISSIPATION AND A
SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
WILL ENSUE. THIS TRACK COULD POTENTIALLY CARRY THE REMNANTS OUT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT WHICH POINT
MODELS SUGGEST REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE REMNANTS IN
FACT SURVIVE AND REEMERGE OVER WATER, THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR
REGENERATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STORM TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE JTWC FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE OVERLAND DECAY FORECAST FROM AVAILABLE
GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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