WDPS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 137.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) MOVING SLOWLY 30-35 NM OFF THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A CIRCULAR REGION OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEGREES CELSIUS COVERS
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
CONSISTS OF A DRY SLOT AND A LACK OF CONVECTION, POSSIBLY DUE TO
LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR APPARENT FROM UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUD
MOTIONS. CENTRE ISLAND, LOCATED CLOSE TO THE INNERMOST CONVECTIVE
BAND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC HAS BEEN MEASURING 10-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-33 KT DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON THIS DATA AND AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS CONSOLIDATING AND
ORGANIZING, BUT HAS LITTLE TIME REMAINING OVER WATER. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE PRESENTLY WEAK BETWEEN DUELING MID-LEVEL RIDGES IN THE
CORAL SEA AND OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, BUT MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY NET STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE NEAR-TERM AND PUSH 14P ASHORE IN AUSTRALIA IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THAT TIME, GIVEN THAT A SYMMETRIC INNER CORE STRUCTURE
HAS NOT YET FORMED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTION, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT 14P SPENDS SLIGHTLY LONGER OVER WATER THAN EXPECTED,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
POST-LANDFALL, 14P WILL DISSIPATE, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA WILL TURN 14P'S REMNANTS WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, POTENTIALLY REEMERGING OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IN SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE
REMNANTS WOULD BE MONITORED FOR REGENERATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN