WDXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING 
NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 76.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1075 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH A 15-NM PINHOLE EYE THAT HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND
BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 280344Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90KTS) 
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SLEW OF AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT 12-HR CONVECTIVE 
DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-MODERATE VWS, WARM SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL 
OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 280500Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 280530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 89 KTS AT 280530Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 81 KTS AT 280600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT
WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RECURVE AND 
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT MAY FUEL A SMALL WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 
105KTS BY TAU 24 WITH AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, 
THEN COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 
48, TC 08S WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE 
COLD CORE LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 168NM BY TAU 72 LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECASTS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE INTENSIFICATION BROUGHT ON BY THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND THE WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ETT. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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