WDXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK)    
WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 79.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 846 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271630Z MHS 
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 10-13 NM OBLONG 
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH SOME 
PRESSURE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH IS CAUSING A 
SHORT-LIVED DEFORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CIMSS ADT AND DPRINT 
ESTIMATES OF 97 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 271800Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 97 KTS AT 271800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING 
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S 
IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO ENHANCED 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM 
WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RAPID WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 60, 
TC 06S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BEGIN 
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, WITH 
INCREASING VWS (30-40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SSTS (24-25 C). AFTER TAU 84, 
TC 06S WILL COMPLETE ETT, GAINING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMING 
EMBEDDED NEAR THE POLAR FRONT JET. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40-
60 KNOTS WITH COLD SST (22 C) VALUES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM (AFUM) AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN (EEMN), NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 
72 AND 85 NM AT TAU 96. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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