WDXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE)    
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.5S 60.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 520 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEVOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, EIR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS, ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR,
ADVECTING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THIS DRIER AIR
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 262106Z N20 ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 270100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 270100Z
   CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 262030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. AFTER TAU 24,
THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STALL AND TRACK EQUATORWARD
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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