WDXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING 
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.8S 62.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 547 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) TRANSITING SOUTHEAST AT 10KTS. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRANSITING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE
STORM AS TC 08S HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW OVER THE LAST
TWELVE HOURS. THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE FOR INTENSIFICATION IS LOW SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 24-25C, DESPITE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS
APPARENT IN THE CLEARER SKIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION OF
26.8S 62.5E WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
IMAGERY AND AN EWSG-2 262215Z PASS DEPICTING AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM
WITH A SWATH OF DEEP LAYERS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS WAS
ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE FIXES BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 261130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 36)
AS IT CONTINUES DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. SST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, REMAINING BELOW 25C. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR
(20-30KTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH WILL FULLY ENGULF THE
SYSTEM IN THE SHORT-TERM, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF
TC 08S, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AGREEMENT IS FURTHER JUSTIFIED WITH A
MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENTIAL OF 110NM BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY AND CONSISTENTLY
WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AT 30KTS BY TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN