WDXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.4S 61.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 381 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252356Z GMI 
37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S 
(CANDICE) HAVING BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LAYERS, AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OFFSET ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TC. 
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BEST OBSERVED 
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, CAN BE SEEN WITH EXTENSIVE 
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IVO OF 
THE LLCC HAVE SHARPLY DROPPED TO NEARLY 26C SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND 
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR EAST OF THE LLCC

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 260030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 260030Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 42 KTS AT 260100Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 41 KTS AT 262353Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12, AT WHICH TIME THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING STR EAST OF THE LLCC WILL TURN THE TC TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ASSESSED AS 
MARGINAL AT 260000Z, ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 12, 
CAUSING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE TC UNTIL COMPLETE DISSIPATION OCCURS 
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU
12, TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINING FROM TAU 12 TO
TAU 48. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 139NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 48
BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBER, CONVEYING MODERATE UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 08S HAS
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
COMING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 48 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 48 HR: MEDIUM//
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