WDXS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK)
WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 88.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1064 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) SHOWING INDICATIONS OF INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRING OF THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE ONCE RAGGED EYE HAS TIGHTENED
AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, MEASURING 16NM IN DIAMETER WITH
TEMPERATURE OF MINUS 19C. ONCE EVIDENT SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO AND UNDER A VERY SYMMETRIC
CENTRAL CANOPY OVERHEAD, MEASURING 240 NM IN DIAMETER. A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (0-5KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
MODERATE (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW LEAVES ROOM FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 06S.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTIPLE GEOSTATIONARY EIR SATELLITE IMAGES OF 251800Z SHOWING A
CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 251232Z RCM2
SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 79 KTS AT 251815Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 251815Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 251900Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 86 KTS AT 251815Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 72. THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG-TRACK IS ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 120KTS BY TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 
72, TC 06S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC
AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO TAU 96, ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE STR 
NEAR TAU 120. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH BEYOND TAU 72, SEA
SURFACE TEMPS FALL SHARPLY FROM 29C AT TAU 72 TO 25C BY TAU 120 AND
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CURTAIL ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
TRACK AGREEMENT FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 72, AND GOOD AGREEMENT
THEREAFTER. A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 83NM AT TAU 72 AND 420NM LEAVES
MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAU (TAU 72 TO TAU 120).
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, SUGGESTS FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR UNTIL NEAR TAU 72, REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF NEAR 120KTS. THE SPREAD OBSERVED IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE
OF 70KTS IS MAXIMIZED AT THIS INTERVAL, LEAVING MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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