WDXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.6S 60.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19KTS. A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS CLEARLY VISIBLE WITH MINIMAL
OUTFLOW AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER CONVECTION SPROUTING IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) OF 26C. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM IS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH AN ENHANCED GRADIENT INDUCED BY
A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 251030Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTING A RAGGED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ANIMATED METEOSAT-9
MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS WAS BASED ON AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 251200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S (CANDICE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24 ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STR TO THE EAST BEFORE TRACKING ON A SOUTHWESTERN COURSE FROM TAU 48-
72 AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS AND BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS 
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE VORTEX BECOMES SHALLOW, THE LLCC EMBEDS
UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE 12 HOURS,
PEAKING AT 55KTS BEFORE BEGINNING ITS DECLINE AT TAU 24. ELEVATED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-25KTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
NORTH, AND RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS OF 20-25C ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
TC 08S TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. IT WILL BE A RACE TO DETERMINE WHETHER TC
08S WILL DISSIPATE OR TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, BUT AT
THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
OVER WATER AT TAU 72 AND FULLY DISSIPATE TO 30KTS NO LATER THAN TAU
96. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A
100NM SPREAD AT THAT TIME. THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A WIDER
BREADTH IN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WHEN THE SYSTEM TURNS TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY TAU 72, OPENING TO A 240NM SPREAD WITH ECMWF TO
THE WEST AND NAVGEM TO THE EAST. THE TRACK DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
HAZY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 96 WITH A
GENERALLY EASTERN DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS MOSTLY AGREED
UPON BY THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS TO PEAK BY TAU 24 BEFORE
DECLINING TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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