WDPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.7S 148.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 166 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07P APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA
AT 12KTS. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL AS DEEP
LAYER CONVECTION SPREADS PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. CLOUD TOPS ARE ALSO SHOWN WARMING ON EIR, LIKELY DUE TO
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEARING THE CENTER OF VORTICITY. AS THE STORM
APPROACHES LAND, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MSI) AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM, WHICH
SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO GOOD EFFECT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED IN LARGE PART
ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF AS THE SYSTEM PASSED TO
THE SOUTH JUST AFTER 0000Z, AND THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES
LISTED BELOW. OF NOTE, THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE LOCATED ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE DATA AND
AN EARLIER 242342Z ASCAT PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 250530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, THE 0000Z
ANALYSIS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED, WITH THE INTENSITY SET TO 65KTS AT
0000Z.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS NEAR TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND INGESTION OF DRY AIR FLOWING EASTWARD OFF THE CONTINENT
AND INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY BY TAU 12, DROPPING TO 35KTS. BY TAU 24, THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND AT APPROXIMATELY 24KTS.
BY TAU 48, THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED OVER
LAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE
HOURS, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ONCE
FULLY OVER LAND, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AND SPREAD TO AN 80NM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 24. BY TAU 48, THE MODELS DRASTICALLY
OPEN TO A 700NM SPREAD ACROSS JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH HWRF TO
THE NORTH AND UKMET TO THE SOUTH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TAU 48.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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