WDXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 58.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 79 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) HAVING RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED, WITH DEEP
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE TO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 242129Z AMSR2
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND SPEED IMAGE CAPTURED A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION
(RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 150NM) WITH AN ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SHIP
OBSERVATIONS (ID EUMDE20) 150NM NORTH OF THE LLCC REPORTED 35KTS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 250000Z. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM POINTE CANON, 
280NM EAST OF THE LLCC REPORTED 35KTS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 250000Z. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
EXCEPTIONAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT (POINT SOURCE). THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTH AND STR TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN GRADUALLY TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK FROM TAU 24
TO TAU 36 AS IT EXPERIENCES THE STEERING EFFECTS OF A STR EAST OF
THE LLCC. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THIS INTERVAL, HINDERED ONLY BY THE VERY BROAD
NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE. NEAR TAU 36, A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINS THROUGH TAU 72. A GRADUAL
DROP IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 36 IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER 
COOLER SEAS, CROSSING THE 26 C ISOTHERM AROUND 260000Z (TAU 48). 
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE TC IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 
96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK AND MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING
INTENSITY.  MODELS INDICATE TC 08S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24, FOLLOWED BY A TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL RISE IN INTENSITY BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, 
SOME MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS (COAMPS-TC AND GFS) SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY DOWNTREND TO TAU 24 BEFORE SHOWING AN OVERALL RISE FROM
TAU 00 TO TAU 36 (INTENSIFYING BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36). FINDING
PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 36 OF APPROXIMATELY 65 KTS, MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96,
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DISSIPATING TC BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY 
AS IT NEARS A PROMINENT STR TO THE SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN