SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING 
NR 009//
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
WDPS31 PGTW 250300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 149.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 204 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 07P (KIRRILY) HAVING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEER. THE
OUTERMOST SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS MOVED
OVER LAND, BRINGING REPORTS OF RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL OBSERVATION
SITES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
250000Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURING A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF
REPORTING 53KTS WESTERLIES AT 250100Z, 58NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC, AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: CORAL SEA SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM
FINDERS REEF, WILLIS ISLAND, AND MARION REEF.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 242330Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 57 KTS AT 250100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF AUSTRALIA, 154NM SSE OF CAIRNS,
NEAR TAU 12 WITH AN INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 50KTS. DISSIPATION
OF THE TC IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 OVER LAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TC 07P HAS REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS AND 
WILL GRADUALLY DOWNTREND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST 
(THROUGH TAU 36).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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